•Google searches provide clues about economic thinking in China
•Concern about an economic slowdown is on the rise
•Inflation worry has fallen; everyone is wealth-management-product crazy
Today we are on the ground in Chinas virtual world. What Chinas netizens search for online can tell us a bunch of interesting stuff about their expectations, concerns and even, possibly, their current and future behaviour. We pioneered the use of Google searches for understanding Chinas economy in 2009 (On the Ground, 23 June 2009, “China – The online wisdom continues”). Since then, Google has suffered some setbacks in China, but we understand that some 12-13% of Mainland searchers still use the service. As before, our results are based on analysis of Google-facilitated searches done in simplified characters within Mainland China. Our figures show the rise and fall of the frequency of a search term in relation to its peak, which is set at 100. Our key findings are:
1.Concern about the economic slowdown is on the rise; few are thinking about a recovery. But people do not think of this slowdown as a 2008-style crisis.
2.Policy stimulus by Beijing has been noticed, but has not generated as much of a splash as in 2008-09.
3.Inflation concern is falling rapidly; there is little interest in pork prices these days. This should give Beijing more space to loosen policy.
4.Searches for “wealth” show a strong correlatation with spending. Google searches suggest that as people get wealthier (and presumably search for what they should do with it), they want to spend more on buying cars, travelling, and studying or emigrating abroad. Beijing now faces the challenge of generating wealth without inflating the housing market again.
